Strong tobacco control policies in Kyrgyzstan can avert 121 500 deaths over 40 years, new projections show

UNCT-KG-WHO-No tobacco

New projections from the World Health Organization (WHO) indicate that implementing strong tobacco control policies in line with the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) will result in significant positive health impacts over both the short- and long-term in countries of the WHO European Region.

The current smoking prevalence among adults in Kyrgyzstan was 25,7% in 2013. Based on the current level of adult smoking in Kyrgyzstan, premature deaths attributable to smoking are projected to be as high as 213 000  of the 425 713  smokers alive today, and may increase in the absence of stronger tobacco control policies.

The SimSmoke tobacco control model that was used to develop the projections indicates that by adopting a set of tobacco control policies consistent with the WHO FCTC, smoking prevalence can be reduced by 37% within five years, 48% within 15 years and 57% within 40 years. Nearly 121 500 premature deaths could be averted over 40 years.

Tobacco control is one of the most effective means to reduce by one third the premature deaths from noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) globally by 2030, in line with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development,” said Dr Zsuzsanna Jakab, WHO Regional Director for Europe. “The projections provided by the tobacco control model offer a tool for policy-makers, public health professionals and other interested users not only to assess which measures will have the strongest impact, but also to make a compelling case for their adoption.”


Specific tobacco control interventions can significantly reduce smoking prevalence

An abridged version of the SimSmoke tobacco control model, developed at Georgetown University, United States of America, was used to project the reductions in smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths resulting from implementing tobacco control policies, both individually and in combination. The model specifically examines the effects of a set of policies in line with the WHO FCTC:

·       protecting from second-hand smoke through stronger smoke-free laws;

·       offering greater access to smoking-cessation services;

·       placing warnings on tobacco packages and other media/educational programs;

·       enforcing bans on advertising, promotion and sponsorship; and

·       raising cigarette prices through higher cigarette taxes.

In Kyrgyzstan, raising cigarette prices through higher cigarette would have the greatest impact. The projections show a 28% reduction in smoking prevalence within 15 years by adopting raising cigarette prices through higher cigarette taxes. This intervention give us possibility to prevent 78 137 deaths from 121 500 due to tobacco death rate.

Stronger action needed on tobacco control

While Kyrgyzstan has made progress in the area of tobacco control, much work remains in order to fully implement the WHO FCTC.

Protecting from second-hand smoke through stronger smoke-free laws may safe 17 074 smokers.

Mass media campaigns will prevent 16,603 deaths from current smokers.

Strengthening tobacco control policies in Kyrgyzstan will help achieve the projections outlined above and protect the population from the harmful health effects of smoking.

World No Tobacco Day 2017: tobacco control efforts support sustainable development

On World No Tobacco Day, 31 May 2017, WHO calls on countries to prioritize and accelerate tobacco control efforts as part of their responses to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and in particular SDG target 3.4 on reducing premature mortality from NCDs.

All countries benefit from successfully controlling the tobacco epidemic, above all by protecting their citizens from the harms of tobacco use and reducing its economic toll on national economies. The aim of the Agenda for Sustainable Development and its 17 global goals is to ensure that “no one is left behind”. Target 3.A specifically commits countries to strengthening the implementation of the WHO FCTC as part of this overarching goal.

WHO supports countries and civil society in their efforts to combat tobacco industry interference in political processes and to take strong national action on tobacco control. It encourages broader public and partner participation in national, regional and global efforts to develop and implement strategies that prioritize such action.


Tobacco control fact sheet: Kyrgyzstan (

World No Tobacco Day

WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control

Tobacco Control Playbook: online tool exposing myths about tobacco